AEW Dynamite - New Year's Smash Results and Analysis | December 31, 2025

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Top of the Card

Women's Singles
AEW TBS Championship

Willow Nightingale
3-6 (Overall: 16-14, Last 5: 4-1)
Win Probability: 38.1%

━━━━━━━━━━┥ vs ┝━━━━━━━━━━

Mercedes Mone
Champion
19-4 (Overall: 22-10, Last 5: 2-3)
Win Probability: 61.9%

This was the 24th AEW TBS title defense by Mercedes Mone since defeating Willow Nightingale for the championship at Double or Nothing on May 26, 2024 584 days ago.
This was the 5th time Willow Nightingale has challenged for the AEW TBS championship.
Upset win! Willow Nightingale won the match with a Wrazzlin win probability of 38.1%!
This was the 1st main event singles match of 2025 that Willow Nightingale has participated in.
This was the 2nd time Willow Nightingale and Mercedes Mone have competed 1-on-1 in a singles match in AEW. The series is tied 1-1. The most recent match was 584 days ago at Double or Nothing on May 26, 2024 where Mercedes Mone won.

Men's Singles
AEW National Championship

Ricochet
Champion
14-10 (Overall: 20-16, Last 5: 2-3)
Win Probability: 37.5%

━━━━━━━━━━┥ vs ┝━━━━━━━━━━

Jungle Boy
2-3 (Overall: 7-5, Last 5: 3-2)
Win Probability: 62.5%

This was the 1st time Jungle Boy has challenged for the AEW National championship.
Upset win! Ricochet won the match with a Wrazzlin win probability of 37.5%!
Over the past year, Ricochet has won the 5th most number of matches in AEW Men's singles competition (14 wins).
This was the 1st time Ricochet and Jungle Boy have competed 1-on-1 in a singles match in AEW.

Middle of the Card

Men's Singles

Jon Moxley
20-7-1 (Overall: 31-17-1, Last 5: 5-0)
Win Probability: 75.9%

━━━━━━━━━━┥ vs ┝━━━━━━━━━━

Josh Alexander
2-7-1 (Overall: 15-18-1, Last 5: 2-3)
Win Probability: 24.1%

Over the past year, Jon Moxley has won the most number of matches in AEW Men's singles competition (20 wins).
This was the 1st time Jon Moxley and Josh Alexander have competed 1-on-1 in a singles match in AEW.
With this win, Jon Moxley has now won 5 singles matches in a row.

Men's Singles

Brody King
5-6-1 (Overall: 19-15-2, Last 5: 3-2)
Win Probability: 62.5%

━━━━━━━━━━┥ vs ┝━━━━━━━━━━

Lee Johnson
0-3 (Overall: 0-9, Last 5: 0-5)
Win Probability: 37.5%

This was the 1st time Brody King and Lee Johnson have competed 1-on-1 in a singles match in AEW.
Prior to this match it had been 39 days since Brody King and 91 days since Lee Johnson had competed in a AEW match.

Bottom of the Card

Men's Singles

Bandido
7-4 (Overall: 23-15-1, Last 5: 4-1)
Win Probability: 74.4%

━━━━━━━━━━┥ vs ┝━━━━━━━━━━

The Beast Mortos
1-10 (Overall: 5-17, Last 5: 0-5)
Win Probability: 25.6%

Over the past year, The Beast Mortos has lost the 4th most number of matches in AEW Men's singles competition (10 losses).
This was the 2nd time Bandido and The Beast Mortos have competed 1-on-1 in a singles match in AEW. Bandido leads the series 2-0. The most recent match was 203 days ago at AEW Dynamite on June 11, 2025 where Bandido won.
With this win, Bandido has now won 3 singles matches in a row.
Prior to this match it had been 60 days since The Beast Mortos had competed in a AEW match.

Three on Three Tag Team
New Year's Eve Tornado Trios

Daniel Garcia, Marina Shafir and Claudio Castagnoli
(Combined Overall: 45-49-3, Last 5: 8-6-1)
Win Probability: 38.5%

━━━━━━━━━━┥ vs ┝━━━━━━━━━━

Orange Cassidy, Toni Storm and Roderick Strong
(Combined Overall: 61-46, Last 5: 6-9)
Win Probability: 61.5%

Milestone: This match was the 100th match for Roderick Strong in AEW.
Upset win! Daniel Garcia, Marina Shafir and Claudio Castagnoli won the match with a Wrazzlin win probability of 38.5%!

AEW Dynamite - New Year's Smash